FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday slashed interest rates for a third time this year to help maintain US economic growth in the face of external risks and trade threats.
US central bank cut its key overnight lending rate by a 25 basis points to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75% but signaled there would be no more reductions for the rest of 2019, unless the economy goes south.
” “We believe that monetary policy is in a good place. We took this step to help keep the economy strong in the face of global developments and to provide some insurance against ongoing risks. We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a press conference after the decision.
In a statement, the Fed erased a previous phrase that it “will act as appropriate” to sustain the economic expansion and said instead that it will “monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path” for target interest rate. Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who have dissented from all cuts this year, voted against from the decision.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its monetary policy steady and its short-term rate target at -0.1% on Thursday in line with expectations. However, the bank whose decision followed that of the Fed, provided strong signal that it may cut the rates deeper into the negative territory in the future.
Cao Derong, President of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs, a government-backed association told Reuters on Wednesday that Beijing remove the extra tariff and let the companies make the purchases based on their own will, and based on market rules. That would allow Chinese importers to bring in $50 billion worth American agricultural products that US President Donald Trump insists on before signing a preliminary deal.
Chilean President Sebastian Pinera on Wednesday announced that his country will not be able to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC) and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP25) due to protests that has paralyzed the South American nation. APEC was to be held from November 11 to the 17 and Trump was hoping to sign the Phase-1 trade deal with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping there and then.

EURUSD

The euro continues its initially steep rally after the US Federal Reserve went ahead with its expected third rate cut of this year and took a more dovish stance compared to the earlier meetings. The pair price has risen and settled above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement and the ascending trendline. With the price rising, 1.1180 and then 1.1200 near the 61.8 Fibo will be aimed at. Further upwards 1.1230 will be targeted. In the event of some strength in the dollar, 1.1145 at the 50 Fibo then 1.1120 will be followed.
Support: 1.1145- 1.1120
Resistance: 1.1180 -1.1200 -1.1230

GBPUSD

A slow but sure rise in the pound continues in the wake of the Parliament’s early general elections decision and the US Federal Reserve’s cut of its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points. With the lessening risk of a no-deal Brexit, the pair price is rising as it aims for 1.2970 and 1.3000. Further above 1.3040 near the upper band of the ascending channel will be followed. In the less likely scenario of a drop, 1.2900 and 1.2880 can be watched.
Support: 1.2900 -1.2880
Resistance: 1.2970 -1.3000- 1.3040

USDJPY

The Japanese yen pushed the pair down after the US Federal Reserve slashed federal funds rates by a quarter percentage point. The decision by the Bank of Japan to hold its monetary policy steady and its signal to go deeper into the negative rate territory slowed the fall in the pair price. As it heads down, 108.50 and then 108.30 at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement can be targeted. In the event of a recovery, 108.80 and 109.00 level will be watched.
Support: 108.50 -108.30
Resistance: 108.80 -109.00′

GOLD

Precious metal prices continued to go up on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve slashed its interest rates by 25 basis points in line with expectations. Although the central bank dropped a previous reference in its statement that was signaling cuts in the future. As the price tries to settle at 1500, Sino-US trade-related developments will be watched. If gold prices 1505 and then 1510 can be targeted. In the event of a reversal in the pricing, 1494 at the 50 percent Fibo and then 1490 can be watched.

Support: 1494- 1490
Resistance: 1505- 1510

Support: 12 900 -12 860
Resistance:13 000 -13 050

BRENT

Oil prices rose on Thursday due to more economic stimulus by the Chinese central bank to fend off the effects of the trade war with the US. They were falling after the US Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels in the week ending on October 25. The expectations were for a build of half a million barrel. Brent price is now aiming for 69.70 at the 50 pct Fibonacci retracement. Still above, 70.00 and then the recent top at 70.50 can be watched near the upper band of the wide descending channel. In the event of a resumption to the recent pressure, 69.00 and then 68.50 will be followed.
Support: 69.00 -68.50
Resistance: 69.70- 70.00 -70.50

DAX

The Frankfurt-based German index is keeping flat after the Fed rate cut, a cautious rapprochement in the Sino-US trade ties amid hopes of the signing of a preliminary Phase-1 deal and the falling likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. The increase in the Dax 30 is stalled though on Thursday morning as investors keep their guard in the face of warnings coming from the Fed regarding health of the global economy. We are currently aiming for 13 000 level, which then can be followed by 13 050, last seen in June 2018. In the event of a fall, 12 900 and then 12 860 can be watched.
Support: 12 900 -12 860
Resistance:13 000 -13 050

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