This week’s economic data will feature monthly employment data from the US and the Eurozone, showing how recovery from the pandemic crisis evolves in two main global economic zones.
Also, there will be some second-quarter growth figures worth watching closely. Several policymakers from the US Federal Reserve will speak before A purdah is imposed ahead of the next rate-setting meeting.
Central banks
On Monday, US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will be talking about the new monetary policy framework. Fed executive Lael Brainard tackles the same issue on Tuesday, while New York Fed President John Williams will share his views on the economy and Covid-19 on Wednesday.
New statements will attract particular attention after the Fed announced that it will take a more tolerant approach to temporary increases in inflation during last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium.
The Fed is set to release its Beige Book of economic conditions Wednesday.
Policymakers from the Bank of England (BoE), including Governor Andrew Bailey, are to update the UK House of Commons on Wednesday.
Bailey is poised to talk about the future of cryptocurrencies and stable coins on Thursday as Michael Saunders prepares to speak about the economy and Covid-19 on Friday.
US jobs
This week, markets will focus on labor figures from the world’s largest economy which suffered the most from Covid19. As at the beginning of each month, the US data set to be released on Friday will show whether the number of jobs added in August prolonged the recovery that started in May as socio-economic restrictions were eased.
Economists surveyed by the US finance network Bloomberg expect non-farm payroll figures as 1.58 million in August.
The number of Americans receiving unemployment support fell from 14.8 million to 14.5 million by mid-August, well below the 24.9 million peak in May.
Another closely watched job data is the first unemployment benefits applications published on Thursday. In the US, just over 1 million applications were registered last week.
Other data
Canada also announces its labor figures on Friday. Employment is expected to have increased again for the fourth month in a row.
When the Eurozone’s July unemployment figures are released on Tuesday, there will be more signs of whether the European labor market can continue to weather the historic recession caused by the epidemic.
The Australian economy is also expected to have shrunk when quarterly data is released on Wednesday. Some economists forecast a contraction of 7.5 percent.
Manufacturing data from China, the UK, and the US will be followed.
Iran nuclear deal
Senior officials from the countries that signed the Iran nuclear deal (France, the UK, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran) are holding a quarterly meeting for the first time since February, following a delay due to the coronavirus outbreak. The US withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and is now trying to re-impose pre-agreement UN sanctions on Iran, despite the opposition of even its own allies.
A quarterly report detailing Iran’s nuclear activities by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be released soon. Iran recently agreed to open two nuclear facilities to the IAEA.
Geopolitics
The Trump administration’s ban on TikTok in the technology war between the US and China, one of the factors that particularly affect the US and Asian markets as well as gold, and Microsoft’s attempted purchase of the platform will continue to be closely watched.
The Chinese government passed a law on the weekend making the sale of TikTok subject to its permission, TikTok’s owner Bytedance announced that it would comply with the new law.
On the other hand, the dispute over China’s building of artificial islands and sovereignty claims over the international waters in the South China Sea, a vital international trade route is likely to continue to strain relations between Washington and Beijing.
Reports of another conflict between Chinese forces and Indian troops in the Ladakh region in the Himalayas are another source of concern.
Economic Calendar
Monday: United Kingdom — Bank Holiday
Tuesday: China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, RBA Interest Rate Decision, RBA Rate Statement, German Manufacturing PMI, German Unemployment Change, UK Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: Australia GDP, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, US Crude Oil Inventories,
Thursday: UK Composite PMI, UK Services PMI, US Initial Jobless Claims, US Initial Jobless Claims, BoE Gov Bailey Speaks, US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday: Australia Retail Sales, UK Construction PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate, Canada Employment Change, Canada Ivey PMI
