A busy week awaits investors in terms of central activity in East Asia, Europe and the US as markets remain constrained by the raging trade wars.
BoJo’s week
The question of who is replacing the outgoing UK prime minister Theresa May keeps Britain on the edge as the most likely successor appears to be the hardliner Brexiteer Boris Johnson.
Johnson, the former London Mayor and Foreign Secretary is well ahead of his nearest rivals within the Conservative Party who are now down to six. But he is coming under stricter scrutiny for not appearing in front of the media and public more often to articulate his vision and plans regarding the divorce from the EU.
The Tory hopefuls will be eliminated down to two-party voting throughout the week. They will face off each other Tuesday on BBC.
EU leaders convene
EU leaders are reconvening in Brussels on Thursday to discuss who should next occupy the bloc’s top jobs. Among the jobs up for vacancy is the European Central Bank (ECB) presidency, currently held by Mario Draghi. Germany’s ambitions to lead the ECB will be closely watched as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government bids for the Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann.
Speaking of ECB, the bank’s governing board is meeting in Portugal for an annual academic forum from Tuesday on. Before that Draghi will be speaking on Monday.
Other central bank news
The US Federal Reserve Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting on Wednesday.
The rate-setting meeting will be under very close market watch as signals of a rate cut sometime this year have already been given under the trade wars and slowing economic circumstances. But forecasts still point to a no-change in the 2.25 percent interest rate policy.
The Bank of Japan, BoJ, that has been struggling to hit its inflation target is also meeting the same day. No rate change is anticipated in Tokyo.
The Bank of England, BoE, on the other hand, is holding its meeting on Thursday. As Governor Mark Carney warns of dangers a no-deal Brexit poses to the country’s economy, no rate change is on the London horizon.
Carney’s speech will follow later.
ASEAN summit in Bangkok
South-east Asian countries’ leaders are gathering in the Thai capital of Bangkok for the 34th ASEAN Summit to discuss their relationships and commerce, most likely under the shadow of the ongoing Sino-US trade war. The summit, attended also by an observing Chinese delegation, starts on Thursday and continues into the weekend.
Monday
ECB President Draghi speaks, Australia RBA Meeting minutes
Tuesday
ECB President Draghi Speaks, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Eurozone CPI, US building permits, UK BoE Governor Carney Speaks
Wednesday
UK CPI, Canada Core CPI, ECB President Draghi Speaks, US Crude Oil Inventories, Fed FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Press Conference, New Zealand GDP, Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Thursday
BoJ Press Conference, UK Retail Sales, UK BoE Interest Rate Decision, BoE MPC Meeting Minutes, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, UK BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Friday
German Manufacturing PMI, Canada Core Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales
